Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
'India represents one of the top opportunities with robust growth, solid fundamentals, and openness to foreign investment.'
Rising oil prices and firming up of global and domestic food prices are likely to have a significant impact on inflation outlook in 2011, a top RBI official said.
The Union Cabinet on Thursday approved a revision in the formula for pricing of natural gas and imposed cap or ceiling price to help cut CNG and piped cooking gas prices by up to 10 per cent. Natural gas produced from legacy or old fields, known as APM gas, will now be indexed to the price of imported crude oil instead of benchmarking it to gas prices in four surplus nations such as the US, Canada and Russia, Union I&B Miniser Anurag Thakur told reporters after a meeting of the Cabinet. APM gas will be priced at 10 per cent of the price of basket of crude oil that India imports (Indian basket of crude oil).
'Inflation is not good for industry. Nor for the economy as a whole.'
Whether this remains under control in the coming months will depend on the future intensity and spread of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the effectiveness of the Indian government's response, points out A K Bhattacharya.
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
Changes in global oil and gas rates matter more to India's economy than other major economies because the country imports around 87 per cent of its oil, half of its gas in the form of LNG, and over 60 per cent of its LPG.
'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
'Trump administration wanted a positive tone at this summit, but there was still some anxiety that there could be some awkward moments -- and there were not.'
There is positive correlation between crude oil prices and Indian equities and investors can expect more upside after the recent rally in Brent crude price.
Prices may go up because of higher energy costs, caused by the rise in shipping charges, with commercial vessels taking a longer route to avoid the troubled Red Sea region, the finance ministry said on Monday. Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are repeatedly attacking ships in the Red Sea. While the global economy is grappling with challenges such as sticky inflation, sluggish growth, and mounting fiscal pressure, India's external sector could face "potential risks" due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the finance ministry's report on the review of the Indian economy.
Indian economy is poised to do better on the back of reforms undertaken by the government and is expected to clock a 6.5-7 per cent growth in the remaining part of the decade, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Tuesday. Addressing reporters here after the tabling of the Economic Survey in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, Nageswaran said that by and large, inflation is likely to be "well behaved" in FY2023-24 barring headwinds. "My optimism is that in the coming decade, rest of the decade, the potential GDP growth, without taking into account export potential, because global economy is still rife with uncertainty, the growth rate would be around 6.5 to 7 per cent, rather than between 6 per cent and 6.5 per cent," he said.
Every 10 per cent rise in crude oil price will shave off around 0.2 percentage point (pp) from India's GDP growth and widen the current account by 0.3 per cent, says Nomura.
India's trade account could come under pressure and there could be an inflation push if crude oil prices remain above the $90 per barrel (Brent) for a prolonged period since India imports over 85 per cent of its oil and roughly 50 per cent of its gas. A rebound in economic activity is bound to lead to higher fuel demand. While India is the third-largest importer of crude, it is a net exporter of refined products, which helps to compensate to some degree.
Economy to grow 6.5% in 2016 on better macro conditions, says Mckinsey.
'Top lines will grow, volume growth will be there, but margins might also be impacted.'
India is deeply concerned over the spike in the price of oil due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and it is "breaking our back," External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said. Addressing a joint press conference with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken after holding bilateral talks, Jaishankar on Tuesday said there is a very deep concern among developing countries about how their energy needs are addressed. Speaking about the Ukraine war, he said: "We have taken the position privately, publicly, confidentially and consistently that this conflict is not in anybody's interest."
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday met IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva and discussed a range of issues, including impact of geopolitical situation on global growth.
Carter was in politics, but not a politician, certainly not a transactional politician, points out Shreekant Sambrani.
India needs to recognise and address challenges posed by its dependence on China for critical minerals and examine the implications of phasing down coal on bank balance sheets as it accelerates its green transition, the government's Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday said. As part of its national plan to contribute to meeting the global goal of limiting the average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, India has committed to reducing emissions by 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, achieving 50 per cent cumulative electric installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources, and creating a carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 gigatons of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover.
While the UK will possibly go into recession, the bigger fear is copycat referendums from other EU nations.
There is no direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on India in terms of bilateral trade but a surge in oil prices poses considerable risk to the economy, an analyst report said on Friday. International oil prices which have surged past $100 per barrel "pose risks to external stability and currency movement," a Bank of Baroda Economics Research report said. Russia has launched military operations against Ukraine, stoking fears of significant disruption in the region, including loss of life. The West is ramping up financial sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine.
Experts feel oil prices will remain volatile with an upward bias.
'2019 was fought on delivery. But in 2024, you can see the before and after effects.'
India's e-commerce market alone is projected to reach $200 billion by 2026, making it a prime industry for ambitious entrepreneurs, explains rediffGURU Harsh Bharwani.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday commended Indian financial sector regulators for doing a "world-class job" and bringing greater transparency into the system. Underlining that she is not against questioning or critiquing regulators, Sitharaman said there is a need to be "extremely conscious" about contributions made by them as well. Speaking at the Financial Express Best Banks Awards, the finance minister said, "I strongly recommend that facts are taken on board before we discuss anything to do with the regulators, strictly speaking."
Global supply is staying in excess of demand.
Arunabha Ghosh on why India will increasingly become an energy great power, but not an energy hegemon.
The Central government is stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea as far as the runaway fuel prices are concerned.
In the coming months, globally as well as in India, rice might remain a hot potato.
Trumponomics, poor growth, and high valuation certainly don't make a bullish recipe for Indian markets, warns Debashis Basu.
The world is in a state of crisis and it is difficult to predict how long this state of instability will last, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Thursday referring to various global challenges arising out of conflict, war and terrorism among others. In his opening remarks at the Voice of Global South virtual summit, Modi flagged concerns over rising prices of food, fuel and fertilisers, economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as natural disasters driven by climate change. "We are meeting as a new year dawns and brings new hopes and new energy," Modi said.
India's jugalbandhi with coal and clean energy is coming unstuck, neither achieving adequate renewable generation nor ensuring sufficient coal-fired power in the quest to become a $5-trillion economy. Six months have elapsed since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced an ambitious climate agenda for India at COP26 at Glasgow. The net zero emissions target by 2070 is a distant one, but there are nearer-term plans to meet 50 per cent of energy demand with renewables by 2030 by increasing capacity to 450 Gw. A cursory look at the balance sheet of India's climate progress since November reveals ponderous progress towards meeting the renewables target even as the country is scrambling to expand coal-fired generation in the face of a power crisis.
Oil and LNG prices are likely to shoot up if Iran is to block Strait of Hormuz, through which countries like India import crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, leading to a spike in inflation, analysts said on the Iran-Israel conflict. The Iran and Israel conflict has escalated over the last few days. Iran first launched drone and rocket attacks on Israel, which retaliated by firing a missile. Crude oil prices have hovered around USD 90 per barrel since the conflict.
Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of the further declines in energy prices.
The biggest bounce is in the realty sector, where the industry index jumped 80%. There's been a turnaround also in automobiles and ancillaries (up 45%). The pharma and health care indices have a welcome return of roughly 35%.
India's climate change goals are turning combustible. On the one hand, a protracted dispute between the government and manufacturers over subsidies threatens to slow the pace of electric vehicle (EV) sales. On the other hand, repeated assertions by different arms of the government over banning sales of new fossil fuel-fired vehicles have queered the pitch for energy investments. Before we address the issue of the recommended diesel vehicle ban in the recent report on energy transition, issued months before the next round of global climate talks begin in Dubai in November, let's look at what's at stake.
'For experienced and risk-taking investors, now may be the time to go all in.' 'By 'experienced and risk-taking', I refer to those who remained net buyers in equities during the early stages of the 2020 pandemic.' 'On the other hand, those who exited the markets during the pandemic may go the SIP way.'
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